Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 22.478137 24.433289 26.539048 28.985605 31.762532 34.831377 38.499919
2026-01-18 19.179390 21.819889 24.856997 28.647318 33.306252 38.920503 46.315287
2026-01-25 16.967222 19.993733 23.659203 28.508304 34.885381 43.183545 55.151245
2026-02-01 15.371897 18.632827 22.751991 28.474973 36.456981 47.591194 65.095152
2026-02-08 14.103435 17.494690 21.930354 28.354855 37.787874 51.801404 75.709881
2026-02-15 13.075030 16.537316 21.202074 28.207115 38.974934 55.926580 87.215716
2026-02-22 12.213732 15.707605 20.537193 28.024714 40.020245 59.950702 99.653900
2026-03-01 11.531214 15.055195 20.041695 28.004561 41.271614 64.503798 114.511881
2026-03-08 10.946698 14.486901 19.603489 27.999191 42.510902 69.241435 131.432052
2026-03-15 10.643226 14.295148 19.697553 28.835690 45.306984 77.504419 159.929913
2026-03-22 10.102218 13.708737 19.131648 28.504448 45.918984 81.497177 179.605860
2026-03-29 9.676507 13.265357 18.749960 28.437530 47.004341 86.732783 205.546057
2026-04-05 9.331769 12.934680 18.539048 28.678418 48.800540 94.215121 244.024369
2026-04-12 8.912583 12.463362 18.065951 28.402264 49.516771 99.382073 278.926574
2026-04-19 8.560278 12.076198 17.703235 28.291312 50.569441 105.744545 324.499352
2026-04-26 8.253588 11.743145 17.406004 28.270586 51.817599 113.051504 382.497941
2026-05-03 7.956118 11.407478 17.079422 28.157336 52.838480 120.083590 448.793457
2026-05-10 7.676916 11.086067 16.754805 28.013651 53.766248 127.194938 527.275508
2026-05-17 7.412974 10.775841 16.428884 27.834210 54.580921 134.287116 619.852026
2026-05-24 7.191643 10.525277 16.192527 27.814806 55.796760 143.255341 748.964013
2026-05-31 6.987265 10.292884 15.973625 27.809745 57.053654 152.957588 915.929716
2026-06-07 6.909450 10.271372 16.137469 28.638354 60.701478 173.658692 1301.327390
2026-06-14 6.683834 9.983982 15.789057 28.310353 61.086372 181.284310 1561.415728